When Does Monsoon Season Start 2022: From June through September, South Asia sees the southwest monsoon, when the region’s agriculture is primarily reliant on rainfall. Before moving on to the forecast, let’s have a look at some teleconnections. Winter sea-surface temperatures in the northern Arabian Sea and northwestern Australia have some teleconnections. Warm waters off the coast of northwestern Australia have a favorable link with Rainfall in South Asia during the summer monsoon.
The water temperatures of the Arabian Sea are not visible in the accompanying photograph. SST-related teleconnections include the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). According to climate models, a warm AMO and a somewhat negative PDO are both promising signals for rain in South Asia this summer. The IOD appears to turn moderately negative later in the summer and into the autumn, which could indicate a drier monsoon in the last months of the season. Despite the fact that the current La Nina has passed its apex and may revert to neutral throughout the summer
Other signals such as the negative South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) and negative South Pacific Meridional Mode (SPMM) may result in weak La Nina conditions persisting for the majority of the summer. The previous graphs of sea surface temperatures favor the persistence of cool waters over the central equatorial Pacific in the summer, resulting in weak La Nina conditions that linger far into the monsoon season. According to the NMME and IMME ENSO maps, the Nino 3.4 region will be cooler than usual.
Excellent news for rain in South Asia this Summer
Other teleconnections based on sea surface temperatures show that if La Nina persists, rainfall throughout much of South Asia should be at least normal. The Bay of Bengal may experience a series of pre-and post-monsoon low-pressure systems over the next few months if the IOD and PDO remain favorable. According to the multi-model ensembles and teleconnections below, there is excellent news for rain in South Asia this summer. After looking at rainfall in South Asia during the monsoon, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is being utilized as an indicator of the arrival of the monsoon in Kerala.
A strong SOI and an easterly QBO four days ahead of the commencement date of the monsoon season in Kerala can be forecast by a strong SOI and an easterly QBO. The South Asia monsoon season outlook is shown here, based on a variety of teleconnections. Wetter weather is expected in areas of India, particularly Odisha and northern Andhra Pradesh, as well as Madhya Pradesh and maybe Gujarat, due to lows in the Bay of Bengal. The parched parts of southern Kerala and Sri Lanka could get wetter depending on the course of the monsoon lows. Furthermore, the weather in Jammu and Kashmir may be dryer than expected.
In 2022, the IMD predicts ‘Normal’ Seasonal Rainfall, which would be India’s fourth straight year of good monsoon weather. After three months of scorching heat, India’s population eagerly awaits the arrival of the monsoon for the second half of the summer season. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has just produced a new long-range forecast for the Monsoon season of 2022, which is still at least two months away. The forthcoming southwest monsoon season, which runs from June to September, has a fair chance of being typical [96–104 percent of India’s long-period average (LPA)].
From June through September, the Southwest Monsoon affects much of South Asia. With the exception of Sri Lanka and south-eastern India, the monsoon, which accounts for 75-90 percent of the region’s annual rainfall, has a significant impact on the region’s socio-economic fabric and, as a result, on the economies of South Asian countries. Maximum temperatures are forecast to be average for the rest of the region.
India’s LPA for monsoon precipitation is Expected
India’s LPA for monsoon precipitation is expected to be about 87 cm between 1971 and 2020, accounting for over 99 percent of the seasonal precipitation. Surprisingly, India received the same amount of rain in the 2021 monsoon season as it did the previous year. Typical monsoon rain is excellent news for India since it ensures appropriate crop output, replenishes reservoirs that are critical for the country’s drinking water supply and electricity generation, and lowers retail inflation pressures.
India Meteorological Department (IMD), India Meteorological Department (IMD), India Meteorological Department (IMD), India Meteorological Department (IMD), India Meteorological Department (IMD), India Meteorological Department (IMD), India Meteorological Department (IMD), India Meteorological Department. During this 4-month period, there is a chance of normal to above-average seasonal rainfall in parts of northern peninsular India and adjacent Central India, over the Himalayan foothills, and in some parts of Northwest India. Rainfall will be below average in some parts of Northeast India, certain parts of Northwest India, and the southern parts of the South Peninsula.
In this year’s monsoon, La Nia conditions will persist in the equatorial Pacific, while the IOD will turn negative in the Indian Ocean before remaining neutral until the season begins. Because these sea surface temperature conditions over both the Pacific and Indian Oceans have a substantial influence on the Indian monsoon, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) will keep an eye on them as the monsoon approaches. The MMCFS is one of the most reliable climate models used by the IMD to create this long-term multimodel forecast. Since these forecasts were based on April’s initial conditions, the IMD will issue a revised monsoon projection for 2022 in the latter week of May.
The southwest monsoon season is projected to have normal to above-average rainfall
In the 2022 southwest monsoon season (June–September), an authoritative seasonal forecast from the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum expects normal to above-average rainfall for most of South Asia. The foothills of the Himalayas, much of the northwest and center of the region, and some of the east and south of the region are the most likely to see above-normal rainfall. However, rainfall will most likely be below average in sections of the region’s far north, northwest, and south, as well as the southeast. The rest of the region is forecast to have regular seasonal rains.
The Monsoon Forecast for the Year 2022
The outlook took into account the ESO, the Indian Ocean Dipole, snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, and land surface temperature anomalies. A virtual South Asian Climate Outlook Forum was held from the 26th to the 28th of April. At this year’s meeting, attendees included representatives from the WMO’s Regional Climate Centre Pune (RCC-Pune), the UK Met Office (UKMET), the WMO’s Climate Research Programme (CRP), and other international organizations.
The Climate Services User Session for sectors that are most sensitive to climate change follows immediately. It focuses on exchanging, comprehending, and interpreting seasonal climatic information in order to effectively manage climate threats in the region. During the workshop, further demands for customized goods and solutions to enhance decision-making will be discovered.
SASCOF was founded in 2010 as part of the World Meteorological Organization to bring together countries in South Asia that are interested in the monsoon. Regional Climate Outlook Forums, which are supported by the World Meteorological Organization and its partners around the world, promote collaboration and information sharing on seasonal climate forecasts and related issues.
